MichaelKatcher.com

Words of Wisdom from Leo Getz

For those of you who haven't seen Lethal Weapon 4, or Lethal Weapon 2 or 3 for that matter, Leo Getz is a loud-mouth crooked accountant turned government witness turned private investigator played by Joe Pesci. In one of his many rants, he goes off on cell phone companies.

They $@*% you with cell phones. That's what it is. They're $@*%in' you with the cell phone. They love it when you get cut off. Y'know why, huh? You know why? 'Cause when you call back - -which they know you're gonna do. - -they charge you for that $@*%in' first minute again at that high rate.

I bring up Mr. Getz because when I was thinking about cell phone companies this morning, I realized that nothing has changed since Leo spoke these words of wisdom eight years ago. What are some complaints that the modern cell phone user has? Here's my list of ways Verizon/LG is $@*%in' you with the cell phone:

• Ring Tones - I have a 1GB MiniSD memory card for my cell phone that I've filled with MP3s to listen to on my phone. Yet I cannot use any of them as ring tones. I actually paid Verizon for the privilege of using Kanye West's Addiction as my ring tone, even though I already had it on my phone. The only reason I can't use my MP3's as ring tones is because Verizon wants one more way to charge me.

• Games - One of the best ways to pass idle time - in a line or on a train or bus for instance - is playing cell phone games. On my current phone, I have eleven games. Yet I only play four or five of them consistently. I've often downloaded games, only to find that they weren't what I expected or that I just didn't enjoy them. It would be so simple for Verizon to allow five minute demos, but instead they force me to buy the game and take my chances. Although there is a subscription option, if I like the game, then I'll probably keep the game long enough to make the subscription more expensive than the unlimited, and if I don't like the game, I still have to pay for the first month of subscription. Even worse, I can't transfer games from one phone to the next (I think. If I'm wrong on this, someone please leave a comment below).

• Walled Garden - Although I know I've had kind words for walled gardens in the past, cell phones are completely wrong for that model. I understand the appeal of the walled garden approach to cell phone companies; it keeps support easy and stops customers from crashing their cell phone's OS the way many people do with PCs. In fact, I'm sure that there are plenty of people who, if given the option, would prefer a cell phone that trades customability for reliability. I've just always thought that there would be strong demand (and not many incremental costs to develop) a developer friendly cell phone. One that allowed people to use their cell phone more like a computer, whose features are limited only by the user's imagination, as opposed to a console like Xbox, which can only be used for specific, pre-defined functions. Innovations like streaming TV and music, social networking integration, and RSS feeds could be so much more easily integrated into a phone capable of being easily programmed by the phone's owner.

While I can't imagine Leo complaining about any of the above comments specifically, I'm sure he would understand my frustration with how Verizon "$@*%s you with the cell phone."

A Better Way to Take Pictures: Eye-Fi

I read a recent article on TechCrunch just now about a new company called Eye-Fi. A mash-up of WiFi and flash storage, Eye-Fi offers memory cards for digital cameras (or cell phones) with built in wireless capability, making uploads ten times easier. According to their site, the memory supports WiFi, WUSB, and WiMax wireless technologies. There's more information in this article. Some interesting excerpts include:

Pricing - "'$100 for what exactly?' Well, let's say a 1GB SD Memory card costs about $60 to $100 retail. Well, Eye-Fi could make a card that has BOTH a WiFi system on it, as well as the memory, for $100 to $150."

User Friendliness - "Everything happens — automatically. When he took my picture my picture appeared on his computer without him touching the camera further. Obviously there's a bit of setup, but that's easy. Anyone who can use a Web browser could setup the system."

Storage Needs - "You don't need as much memory if you have an Eye-Fi. Why? Cause your camera's memory is just a cache. As soon as you're within a WiFi hotspot the camera could spit the photos to your favorite photo sharing site." Imagine uploading pictures in the lobby of your hotel every night after a day of sight-seeing, without having to bring your laptop.

This looks like an amazing technology and I'll be sure to alert you of any new developments.

Does Microsoft Have a Clue?

I opened up Google Reader this afternoon to find a story on TechCrunch about the new Live.com Shopping site launched today. For those who aren't familiar with it, Live.com is Microsoft's web 2.0 portal, which seeks to mimic many of the features seen on sites like Netvibes or Google. Unfortunately, reading the review won't tell you anything about their new shopping service; it doesn't currently support FireFox. Now while FireFox may only have 10% of the browser market, it is by far the browser of choice for the early adopters that test, review, and blog about new Internet offerings. By denying the site to such a community, Microsoft is taking a very large, and unnecessary risk.

I happen to be using a friend's computer right now, who only has Internet Explorer, so I briefly toured the site myself. It appears to be packed with features like collaborative reviews, sharable shopping lists, and the ability to create "guides" on anything from "How to choose a red lipstick" to "How smart is your smart phone". Guides can be rated so that better written guides will be shown first. The site is beautifully designed, with AJAX drag-and-drop features. Dragging a product image to a shopping cart, and watching the cart automatically update is an experience that will revolutionize e-commerce.

Microsoft has an excellent product, from my brief tour. Why they would choose to alienate the very users most likely to appreciate the feature-rich site is beyond me.

The Youth of the Arab World and Revolution

In his April 6th What I Learned This Week newsletter, Kiril Soroloff of 13D Research comments on the stunning demographics of the Arab world. Among the many facts and figures he presents, he notes that 60% of the Saudi Arabian population is under 21, and that fertility is estimated to be 4.1 children per woman, as compared to the world average of 2.7. One of the possible drivers of this trend discussed is the great wealth that spread throughout the region during the oil embargos of the 1973, which allowed Arabian families to have more children. Indeed, the trend is far from limited to just Saudi Arabian. The following data, which I collected from the CIA Factbook, highlights the enormous difference between the West and the Middle East.

First of all, the Middle East as a whole has a much lower median age than the West.  The six countries I used as a sample, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Iran, have an average median age of 22.3, as opposed to 31.5 for the United States, France and Germany.  The average Westerner is 42% older than the average Middle Eastern person.  The difference in ages is remarkable, and also potentially very significant.

Revolutions are born from the youth of countries, and evidence indicates that the Middle East could be reaching this point.  Although well over half of population of these countries are minors, and 75% of Saudi Arabians are under 30, each of these countries is ruled by ancient monarchs and dictators who are completely out of touch with the people.  King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is 82, General Musharraf of Pakistan is 63, Ayatollah Khameni of Iran is 67.  By contrast, George Bush is 60, Angela Merkel is 52, and Nicolas Sarkozy is 51.  The average difference between the median age of the population and the age of the head of state in those three Middle Eastern countries is 49, compared to an average difference of 15 for the three Western countries.  The extreme divergence between the ages of the ruling and the ruled in the Middle East is one possible revolutionary catalyst.

Another potential spark is the great poverty of the Middle East.  Thanks to decades of low oil prices and high birth rates, per capita income has fallen in the Saudi kingdom from $28,000 in 1983 to $7000 in 1999.  Although recent high oil prices have raised that number to $12,500 in 2005, that is still a 55% decline in the past two decades.  A vast population of youths combined with widespread poverty among the masses is oftern a sign of trouble ahead.

If revolution is a future possiblility than we must ask what shape it is likely to take.  There are two diametrically opposed forces pulling at the youth of the Muslim world, and it is not immediately obvious which will prove stronger.  On the one hand, there are the reformers, looking to modernize Middle Eastern society.  On the other are hardcore conservatives, disillusioned by poverty and reactively seeking comfort in religious zeal against modernity and everything it represents.  As a recent article in Smithsonian Magazine entitled Young and Restless explains, "some of them jealously guard parts of the status quo and display a zeal for their Islamic faith unseen in their parents’ generation," while "others are recalibrating the balance between modernity and tradition, directing bursts of new energy at civil society and demanding new political and social rights."

On one side, there is the revolutoinary, conservative movement.  This movement is exemplified by Al Qaeda on the Sunni side, and Hezbollah and its sponsers Iran, Syria and Lebanon on the Sh'ite side.  Both groups long term political goal involve the establishment of "a caliphate encompassing all the lands it deems to be part of the dominion of Islam," according to Stratfor, and is meant to be achieved by inciting mass uprisings against the corrupt regimes that govern the various Arabian states.  The youthful recruits of these groups reject the corruption of the modern world in favor of the purity of Shari'ah or Islamic law.  While the idea of fundamentalist revolution may not appeal to the land of the priveleged, it holds a strong appeal to the confused, poor, and angry young men of the Arab world.

More than anything else, these groups attack the West both violently and rhetorically not for their values and principles so much as their percieved intrusion in Middle Eastern affairs.  Indeed, since the second World War and the discovery of the vast oil reserves of the Middle East, the United States has gone to tremendous efforts to control the political enivornment of the Arabian Peninsula.  The War on Terror is a direct consequence of that meddling.

Going forward, it should be one of the goals of our generation to disengage our country from that part of the world and end our dependence on foreign oil.  The sooner we remove ourselves from a place we are very much not wanted, the sooner our country can focus on issues of much greater significance to our future status, such as encouraging the rise of a friendly, prosperous China.  As Matt Damon pointedly remarked in Syriana, "a hundred years ago you were living out here in tents in the desert chopping each others heads off, and that's exactly where you're gonna be in another hundred."  While ideally I'd love to welcome a free, peaceful Persian Gulf into the community of nations, the sooner the current region fades from the world stage, the better.

Student Entrepreneur Blogs Recap

I've written several times now on this site about Invenio Capital, and their three partners: Dan Marques, Matt Lauzon, and Jason Reuben. Jason has just recently become the final Invenio Capital member to start his own student entrepreneurship blog. I'm glad to see he chose the name-your-site-after-yourself path (www.jasonreuben.com). Jason, as opposed to Matt who is from Maine and Dan who is from Massachusetts, is from Los Angeles. Among other achievements, Jason has managed to leverage his connection to the West Coast diamond industry, first in his original start-up Orion Luxury, and now in his new venture Paragon Lake, an "ecommerce diamond engagement ring company", which he is working on with Dan and Matt.

These three student entrepreneurs have successfully taken many ventures from initial idea to proof-of-concept faster and cheaper than traditional start-ups using Invenio's collaborative entrepreneurship process. If you have any interest in student entrepreneurship consulting, funding (they have a seed fund), or just general advice, I highly recommend you get in touch with them.

Idle Thoughts: 4.25.06

Students of the international web community will be familiar will the old story of Dog Poop Girl. I'll save the story for Wikipedia to tell you. I bring up Ms. Poop Girl because I've been musing about a fundamental problem (some would say benefit) of web 2.0 - the loss of anonymity on the Internet. All these new web 2.0 sites, whether they are simple social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace, or advanced sharing, collaborating, tagging, RSS feeding, content creation, build a unique web identity that belongs to you. Each site becomes a piece of your identity. I am MichaelKatcher.com author, profileAds co-founder, MySpace and Facebook member, with numerous accounts at sites ranging from Amazon and eBay to Writely and Shopify, all linked under my common 'name': michaelkatcher@gmail.com.

As this trend has gained momentum, however, we are increasingly seeing unsettling side effects. For instance, teachers often create their own Facebook accounts, and view their students profiles. Even scarier, employers are asking former alumni to Facebook job applicants. How can I express myself openly, if I know that "adults" are watching. The growth of sites such as MySpace and Facebook are partly about having an environment to socialize away from parental supervision, something which now can only be obtained virtually. As that supervision, in its many forms, invades these sites, their appeal will die away.

Some might argue that a proper job applicant should have nothing to hide, and if you're embarrassed about your profile, then you're unfit for the position. But how many current CEOs or hedge fund wizards didn't have a picture from Spring Break '73 that they might not have wanted their first boss to see.

This trend towards further accountability and transparency has many tailwinds. For instance, consider new start-up RapLeaf, which is in private beta at the moment, and was reviewed by TechCrunch. The site basically applies eBay's feedback system, which many argue is the essential key to the trust that lubricates transactions between strangers, to the whole web, where individuals are identified by either an e-mail address or a phone number. Will a jealous ex-girlfriend post hateful feedback about a boyfriend and ruin his chances to meet someone new? Will an old college buddy post joking feedback that a boss would find inappropriate? Although I'm certain the final version of the site will have safeguards in place, is it really possible to avoid these types of situations?

I find myself in a quandary of my own. Since starting this blog, by goal has always for it to be an accurate reflection of my professional and personal interests and thoughts as related primarily to politics, economics, finance, and especially technology. I always strive to keep the dialog between myself and my readers conversational and informal, yet still appropriate for all audiences. There's no problem until I decide that I want to explore an additional avenue of expression for a different part of my life. For instance, I am an avid Halo player and would love to devote a creative site to the subject. Or additionally, I have pictures from Spring Break in Cancun, Mexico with some fraternity brothers where we're enjoying alcohol (legally). Yet with the responsibility of this site, I cannot comfortably pursue either example. For whatever reason, whether from a prospective employer, a family member, or an inquiring mind, my identity is now (how ever so slightly) in the public forum, and it is difficult to keep only parts of my identity public and others private.

In searching for an answer to this question - how can I express myself in every way I wish without jeopardizing my reputation or my future - I have just now arrived on a possible answer. While the term 'walled garden' is often considered a negative - for instance it has been attributed to the fall of AOL - maybe it could become a plus. Sites like Facebook that require an account to view profiles go part of the way. Another step, if possible, might be some legal disclaimer saying that information discovered using the site cannot be used in hiring decisions. I have no idea if that's even legally possible, and it would likely continue anyway, but it would certainly help. If enormous numbers of niche walled gardens sprung up, with several enormous general purpose ones such as Facebook, it might go a long way to restoring some of the Internet's precious anonymity. If it's E-Commerce, I'm all for transparency, accountability, and identity; but when it comes to my personal identity and my forms of expression, that should remain private.

ThinkFree: UPDATE

I was going to post this article tonight from ThinkFree. Although I had some problems with the speed of the service, I had good things to say. But then I published the article to this site. What showed up was not a post that looked identical to a post made in TypePad itself, but rather an enormous advertisment for ThinkFree with a link to the document on their servers. This is beyond tacky. I was seriously considering using it as my primary word processor. But until ThinkFree works out some serious issues with their service, they will not be a usable alternative or complement to MS Office in any meaningful way.

ThinkFree: Writely Competition

I recently tested out ThinkFree, the newest "online office". Again, I want to remind everyone that I'm not a "professional reviewer" and my goal with these reviews is not so much to test out every feature and give a comprehensive review, but rather to browse sites and give my overall impression. I'll definitely link to TechCrunch, or whoever else does a review, once they put one out.

First, the design looks beautiful. It feels much more like using traditional MSOffice products, yet is even slightly more elegant than those. The design is certainly better than Writely's, which I said I didn't care for in an earlier review. One of the biggest areas this stands out is on the layout of the "document center" page of each service. I think that ThinkFree's is much better organized, and certainly provides access to a wider range of features.

As for functionality, I'm torn. On the one hand, the features offered are certainly greater than Writely's offerings. The document-editing features are especially impressive, with MSOffice-mimicking toolbars. In addition, ThinkFree has a spreadsheet and a presentation program, both of which are obviously huge benefits over Writely. ThinkFree also has lots of free templates such as a spreadsheet for calculating mortgage payments or a word document for a sales invoice. These would definitely be useful for small businesses looking to save money on MSOffice software. On the other hand, load times were extremely slow for me, and I got constant errors when trying to edit documents. Their PowerEdit mode, which contains all the features worth using, has a one-time lengthy script download, plus additional applet loads each time you use it. Especially for someone constantly using different computers, this could be a huge inconvenience.

All-in-all, I'd recommend against using the service for now. As development continues, I have no doubt that ThinkFree has the potential to very easily supplant Writely as my favorite tool. However, as someone who uses programs like these for their portability and convenience more than as an MSOffice replacement, I'd say that Writely is definitely a better choice.

Online Storage: A Flurry of New Activity

After double-tapping my Control button (a nice feature that opens up a translucent search box thanks to Google Desktop, and opens a new tab in Firefox when I type in my search and hit Enter) and typing in 'online storage,' the first options that come up are Xdrive, Streamload, Box.net, and IBackup. I doubt that many people have heard of any of those, although probably some of my readers have. However, could those first four options look very different in a years time?

The big rivalry that's gearing up is between Microsoft's Live Drive and Google's GDrive. I would imagine that once the old giant takes on the new one in this space, the minor guys who currently dominate might have some serious trouble getting or staying profitable. Details have yet to be released regarding either service, but I'll post more updates as they come in.

The End of MySpace (Please)

  Okay, so the title is probably closer to wishful thinking than a real possibility, but I can dream, can't I?  I've never liked MySpace very much.  The only thing uglier than a person's default MySpace page is some of the hideous pages people create with third party tools.  So when the blogosphere became abuzz with the news of a MySpace killer, I was ecstatic.  More specifically, rumor has it that AOL will be creating its own social networking service.

TechCrunch reported the rumor   and compared user stats for different Social Networks yesterday.  Then later that day, they elaborated, citing Ted Leonsis' post on his blog   at AOL, where Ted denied that AOL was trying to "kill" anything: "C'mon.  Working on a product that "kills" another, popular product is just so...1999."  Yet Michael Arrington, the author of the latest TechCrunch article, muses that "a 'MySpace Killer' is exactly what AOL is trying to build."  Any product that leverages AIM's 43 million users and their buddy lists, adding functionality and a site such as www.aim.com/[username] for a customized profile.  What's even better is that any friends list on the site could be automatically pre-populated with every users buddy list.  One reason I've never used MySpace much, besides the poor site design, is that its a pain to add new users.  I know high school seniors who have resisted joining Facebook because they'll have to redo all their friends lists once they graduate and go to college.  A pre-populated friends list, on a site that had a middle ground between Facebook's low-customability/beautiful-design and MySpace's high-customability/awful-design, could potentially kill MySpace.  The key is to attract user hours away from MySpace and towards AIM's service.

TechDirt also reported on the rumor, but was too interested in I-told-you-so to potentially see the bigger picture.

If anyone hears anything new about AIM's new social network, please let me know.