The downside of not working is, while I have more time to blog, I have less idle time to read every research report out there. I just finished with most of them, and although there are many, many worthy topics to discuss, I'd like to take this time to discuss Israel.
Stratfor has highlighted an interesting conundrum, and I hope I don't overstep any boundaries by repeating it here:
Israel has reserved the right to take defensive action against Hezbollah while its troops are in Lebanon. At the same time, Hezbollah has voiced its right to respond militarily to any provocations by Israel. The Lebanese army thus far has refused to deploy to the south until Hezbollah voluntarily disarms. Hezbollah has vowed not to leave southern Lebanon until Israel withdraws, and Israel has refused to withdraw until international troops enter southern Lebanon.
Look at the situation Israel has landed in! I think this is a weak, compromising move by Israel, to fight this war so slow and accept this cease-fire. I think Israelis have lost their stomach for war and its necessary casualties. I think the lesson the Arab world will draw from this is Israel is not invincible. That changes the political calculus of the whole region. Hostile Arab leaders, as well as the so-called Arab street, will view this as a victory for Hezbollah. They launched an attack on Israel and they survived. They fought strongly, protected their main stronghold (Bekaa Valley), and will live to fight another day. I wonder what message that will send to Israel's enemies?
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